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Blackjack hourly win rate

Are most skilled blackjack players accurate with themselves about their hourly win rates? An epiphany by a pro player sparks a discussion with other pro players. My blackjack hourly win rate is lower than I . Winning money when Card Counting is not easy and understanding your hourly win rate is important to determine the profitability if your venture. Early blackjack players tried to hide their ability and knowledge by keeping their bet-spread at about six units. That meant that a player who risked $5 off the top of the deck and spread to $30 as. For an in-depth description, see Blackjack Attack by Don Schlesinger. For the purposes of this discussion, SCORE directly relates to your hourly win rate. The chart at the right shows the SCORE for the same game as the previous chart. That is, how much we can expect to win at each penetration.

Chapter 4. Data by Penetration (SCORE Charts)

All of the charts in this report, and in all of the Beat the Deck reports, use this same format. It is, of course, necessary for you to know how your count relates to your advantage. Separate guides are available from the publisher for one-deck, two-deck, four-deck, and eight-deck games. Also, note that the frequency distribution charts for the 1-, 2-, 4-, and 8-deck games are very different from each other and from the 6-deck charts, and each has its own Beat the Deck book. For players who would prefer not to do any math whatsoever, I have analyzed in the charts that follow most of the practical approaches a player might take to attempt to beat the various games. In the second column, labeled "Bet," you enter your betting system. How much does penetration matter?

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Card Counting and Frequency Distributions

Discussions Activity Sign In. Blackjack Strategy What is your average hourly win rate for on line BJ? JHuxley February You can find it in the Internet, just put on search "Parlay Progression".

Good luck. Hi There :wink: Thanks for you the reply : must give the Parlay progression a try see if I can have the same luck with it as the results your having :shock: 8 Cheers Colin. Things would be even worse when you have a loosing streak of losses "sitting" on high bets.

It breaks like a zipper on your jeans. Knowing this I normally set up a limit for my winnings and losses - winnings: 10 - 30 units, 10 unit is a "don't take me!!! As you've seen above - Parlay gave me a good start-up, then it began "unzipping". A good strategy would be - 1. Stop and log-in next day, 2. Change to flat-bet, 3. Apply to other progression or strategy. My favourite is 9-stage parlay. My very first experience of using it was in online Brandycasino, in it's russian affiliate I'm russian:- , I reconstructed a bit I played there over two weeks.

Since that time a draw out a conclusion - online casinos like "brick and mortar" ones dislike advantageous players who wins on a constant basis. A way out is to make a week break or more in between sessions in one particular casino and "be back" when you are not waited.

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Details

Penetration is the percentage of cards dealt before the dealer shuffles. In Blackjack shoe games the dealer usually deals to a cut card. In single-deck games, the dealer often deals a fixed number of rounds depending on the number of players.

In all cases, the deeper the penetration the better for the card counter as more information is known and a better range of counts is available. These charts are different from the previous charts as they display overall results depending on the overall penetration. That is, they do not show the advantage at a particular depth, but the overall advantage of all hands when the dealer deals to a specific penetration. On the x-axis you will see numbers from to This means that to 26 cards are behind the cut card.

The last card dealt in this case would actually be past the cut card since the shuffle occurs at the end of a round. This chart displays the player advantage for to 26 cards cut off for a six-deck game using Hi-Lo and bets from 1 to 12 units. We can see that the advantage at cards 2. But advantage is only part of the story. As overall advantage increases, it is possible to increase our betting unit while maintaining the same risk. That is, if our overall advantage increases, we can bet more at each count even though the advantage at each count is about the same.

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SCORE is a method of measurement that takes into account optimal betting and risk in addition to advantage. For an in-depth description, see Blackjack Attack by Don Schlesinger. That is, how much we can expect to win at each penetration. You can see that the curve in this chart is much more dramatic.

The win rate with. At deep penetrations, a single card of extra penetration can make a significant difference. Let us take a quick look at an unbalanced strategy against a balanced strategy. Here KO and Hi-Lo are compared. But the point of the chart is that the performance of unbalanced i. KO and balanced strategies i. Hi-Lo have very similar patterns even though the previous pages showed that their counts and advantages at different depths act very differently.

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Overall probability of winning blackjack

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By using our site, you acknowledge that you have read and understand our Cookie Policy , Privacy Policy , and our Terms of Service. Mathematics Stack Exchange is a question and answer site for people studying math at any level and professionals in related fields. It only takes a minute to sign up. Suppose that you are playing blackjack against the dealer. So I deleted the more complicated answer I tried to give earlier.

Then for the other player we either give them two aces from the 3 that are left, give them one ace from the 3 that are left and 1 of the 32 cards, or give them two non-aces from the 47 non-aces that are left. The probability of both getting blackjack is just the probability of the player getting blackjack and the subsequent probability of the dealer also getting blackjack:.

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I don't know if this will get you any closer to a closed form solution, but maybe it helps you think about it. This happens every time.

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With a branching factor of five I know , we have two aces, once ace, two whatevers, one 10, two 10s. The outermost branches are short, but the inside of the tree is massive Hopefully this at least helps you contextualize the problem.

The naive assumption is that the chance of each player getting blackjack is independent of the others. This is not quite correct, as the fact that the first player did not get blackjack enriches the average deck with cards that could make a blackjack for the second player.

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